1) Polls suck. They are way oversampling Democrats (adjusting numbers to assume Democrats outnumber Republicans by, on average, double the historical high), and not providing any rationale for doing so at all.
2) Polls are assuming that all Democrats are voting for Obama. I haven’t seen any poll address the PUMA factor at all. Obamicans are not numerous to be a real factor.
3) Since polls suck, the campaigns run their own polling. McCain’s campaign has come out on record and said, multiple times, “I think we can [or sometimes: will] win this!” But Obama? They haven’t said much of anything lately.
4) Obama is still campaigning. With as many advantages as he’s had in this election with media coverage, contribution fraud, and voter fraud, if he were really ahead like the news organizations say, he’d be at home, saying: “I’m so confident that I will win I don’t even need to campaign anymore.” But he’s not. He’s sweating.
5) His honest answer to Joe the Plumber, and the failure of the Obama-leaning news media to completely squelch his hostility to the coal industry all managed to circulate through society fast enough and early enough to have an effect in this election. It should be enough.
McCain will win, just as I predicted on my old blog.